How to define the specifications of the future energy source?
This curve is an expression of energy consumption in toe (one tonne oil equivalent = approximately 10000kwh) versus time from a time when only wood consumption existed until recently in 2004. This curve, which increases constantly, has the expression of singularity. She still has a bias: the changing demography of the world's population is included in this curve. Yes, the world energy consumption increases, but this is partially related to the increase in population as shown below. We do not have to deal with wildebeest, but we are humans able if we are free to support our own evolution. This is partly true in all world countries except in war areas. Ideally, humans can use technologies to meet their local needs. They can if possible have the opportunity to enjoy the latest technology in the world using internet. It is best to know the evolution per capita to understand what this change.
Shown in the above curve, the global consumption electricity evolution since 1945, in TWh, has not ceased to increase. In fact, electricity has been and it is the best mean to obtain the energy democratization. People no longer receives energy on the back of donkeys. The energy comes to us without giving a thought to it. Therefore, the per capita consumption growth of the “30 glorieuses” is mainly due to electrification. Electricity is the most effective way to transport energy from its source to the user.
The industrialization starts the energy process using the coal. The consumption increases by democratizing access to energy (steam engine, factory ...). This consumption rapidly stabilized both by increasing the number of people benefiting from this growth and a process improvement supply of energy (reducing energy costs). Furthermore, nor the industry technologies, nor the arrival of oil has allowed a new development in the democratization of access to energy up to 1945.
From 1945, an accelerated consumption is observed by the easier access to energy using electricity. All that stops in 1970 at the time of the oil shock, but the electricity consumption continues to grow. It seems that this new stabilization is due to both the process optimization of consumption and also an even greater increase of the population. We continue to consume more and more but the baby boom of 60th has changed this evolution. 10 to 20 years later between 1970 and 1980, the slope of the population has increased. A new stabilization per capita consumption appears. Since 1970, we consume always roughly the same energy per capita.
The reasons for choosing 4.000 kWh are the following. No country with electric consummation per year below 4.000 kWh has a HDI above 0.9 except four countries like South Africa, Saudi Arabia, Russia and South Korea.
The authors of this graph chose electricity rather than a primary energy for their own reasons developped in their site. We have one more reason. In fact, electricity facilitating the democratization of energy is directly related to the well being of people. We estimate between 75 and 80% of the population with an HDI below 0.9. On average, the consumption per capita should increase by 2 to 3 times for the whole planet has a real well-being.
Currently, one quarter of the energy is supplied by coal, a third by oil, and the rest mainly by the gas. It is very difficult to increase the consumption of more than two times without increasing energy costs by both the highest demand and at the same time the difficulties of extracting new coal, oil or gaz resources. If the costs increase, we are moving away from the primary objective which is the democratization of energy consumption. In addition, for the same reason, we must do everything to provide primarily electric power.
What could be the specification of a machine (which we will call M) providing energy that would allow every human being to reach an HDI of 0.9?
Energy must be obtained through the electricity in order to be the most democratic considering the availability and the efficiency. It will allow both energy supply within the habitat and also power vehicles for travel.
The M machine would have an efficiency close to 100% with a low cost of maintenance and per KWh. Its fuel should be as widespread as possible to meet this cost low.
The M machine will be able to move easily as a generator. It should facilitate the development of power plant as soon as possible. Without this, most of the world's population will live in poverty while increasing its population growth. The birth rate is higher in countries with low HDI as shown in the graph below.
The M machine has to be mobile. Small unit of energy will be provided to spread electricity for every one even in very remote areas. This is to prevent urban migration increasing the slum population of crowded cities. A power of 1 to 10 MW must be installed anywhere in a few days, to provide energy at a reduced cost.
The evolution of technology is increasingly expressed by the term singularity. It means that in few decades we will reach a tremendous period of innovation without stopping. This trend is a continuity of the human evolution relatively to the evolution of the universe. Assuming that the universe appeared 24 hours ago, it was necessary to human beings a few minutes to become what they are. Always keeping in mind this scale, technology continues this trend but in a few seconds and faster and faster. Some people think that this trend will end soon because evolution seems directly related to consumption (energy, food...). If we continue to eat with abundance, we cannot continue to support this development. So, how can we explain that this organisation known as intelligence is able to destroy what the universe has built as easily without any a priori knowledge? Yes, we are the last link of the evolution and we are the first to proceed with intelligence to evolve further. What we do now is to increase without limit the amount of neurons on the planet and we do this by increasing our population with plus or minus success.
The answer to the above question can be given here, indicating that the evolution up to the intelligence, ultimate stage of organization, will both reduce consumption and offer new sources of clean energy and economic issues. ("Economy and non Pollution" have a redundant meaning, if there is pollution, there is necessarily loss of energy. Reducing leakage, you will reduce pollution)
Let the curve below show up the world energy consumption versus time.This curve is an expression of energy consumption in toe (one tonne oil equivalent = approximately 10000kwh) versus time from a time when only wood consumption existed until recently in 2004. This curve, which increases constantly, has the expression of singularity. She still has a bias: the changing demography of the world's population is included in this curve. Yes, the world energy consumption increases, but this is partially related to the increase in population as shown below. We do not have to deal with wildebeest, but we are humans able if we are free to support our own evolution. This is partly true in all world countries except in war areas. Ideally, humans can use technologies to meet their local needs. They can if possible have the opportunity to enjoy the latest technology in the world using internet. It is best to know the evolution per capita to understand what this change.
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| Demography in millions of people versus time (ref: Wikipedia) |
The curve above shows the consumption evolution per capita versus time for different energy sources. Instead of bulimia, now, we see many more obstacles to growth relatively to the global consumption graph. The curves of the singularity are rather constantly increasing exponentially and even several times exponential. It is true as indicated by Kurzweil that this exponential trend is simply a set of different curves in S shape. In fact, depending on the resolution level at which the curve is observed, a S behavior, like a step, can be observed. The energy is in fact a new element in the history of mankind. It is true that the discovery of fire control was something important for the survival of humanity, but the fire was part of our life during so long time. Things were different when we wanted to improve our conditions by controlling the way to get a lot more energy. The curve above indicates that per capita consumption changes by step, in fact by successive jumps. We do not have a continuous development but an evolution step done by successive S curves. A first step stopping at roughly 5000kwh per person from 1910 to 1945 and a second level to about 18000kwh from 1975 up to now. The first is grown over the period of industrialization. This period has led to social instability. The second growth is during the called “30 glorieuses” (30 boom years) in France until the oil crisis and the beginning of globalization. Globalization can be as the period for which a lot of more people all around the world want to increase their energy consumption.
The first question is how to explain the first stabilization. It takes place at the beginning of the oil use to obtain energy. It seems that the civilization of the coal has come to an optimum but it cannot allow changes in consumption. The oil has not become an alternative to the coal though it is easier to use. We are talking about per capita consumption and therefore the democratization side of consumption should be important in order to an increase can occur. The graph below shows the most likely explanation: what does it needed for consumption to become more democratic? just as cheap energy, easy to use and above all it will provide services which do not exist before.
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| http://www.manicore.com/documentation/petrole/Charbon_nucleaire.html |
Shown in the above curve, the global consumption electricity evolution since 1945, in TWh, has not ceased to increase. In fact, electricity has been and it is the best mean to obtain the energy democratization. People no longer receives energy on the back of donkeys. The energy comes to us without giving a thought to it. Therefore, the per capita consumption growth of the “30 glorieuses” is mainly due to electrification. Electricity is the most effective way to transport energy from its source to the user.
The industrialization starts the energy process using the coal. The consumption increases by democratizing access to energy (steam engine, factory ...). This consumption rapidly stabilized both by increasing the number of people benefiting from this growth and a process improvement supply of energy (reducing energy costs). Furthermore, nor the industry technologies, nor the arrival of oil has allowed a new development in the democratization of access to energy up to 1945.
From 1945, an accelerated consumption is observed by the easier access to energy using electricity. All that stops in 1970 at the time of the oil shock, but the electricity consumption continues to grow. It seems that this new stabilization is due to both the process optimization of consumption and also an even greater increase of the population. We continue to consume more and more but the baby boom of 60th has changed this evolution. 10 to 20 years later between 1970 and 1980, the slope of the population has increased. A new stabilization per capita consumption appears. Since 1970, we consume always roughly the same energy per capita.
Let’s give a closer look to the electrical consumption of different countries. You can see below the Human Development Index versus the electricity consumption per person.
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| Http://www.euronuclear.org/e-news/e-news-25/issue-25-print.htm |
The reasons for choosing 4.000 kWh are the following. No country with electric consummation per year below 4.000 kWh has a HDI above 0.9 except four countries like South Africa, Saudi Arabia, Russia and South Korea.
The authors of this graph chose electricity rather than a primary energy for their own reasons developped in their site. We have one more reason. In fact, electricity facilitating the democratization of energy is directly related to the well being of people. We estimate between 75 and 80% of the population with an HDI below 0.9. On average, the consumption per capita should increase by 2 to 3 times for the whole planet has a real well-being.
Currently, one quarter of the energy is supplied by coal, a third by oil, and the rest mainly by the gas. It is very difficult to increase the consumption of more than two times without increasing energy costs by both the highest demand and at the same time the difficulties of extracting new coal, oil or gaz resources. If the costs increase, we are moving away from the primary objective which is the democratization of energy consumption. In addition, for the same reason, we must do everything to provide primarily electric power.
What could be the specification of a machine (which we will call M) providing energy that would allow every human being to reach an HDI of 0.9?
Energy must be obtained through the electricity in order to be the most democratic considering the availability and the efficiency. It will allow both energy supply within the habitat and also power vehicles for travel.
The M machine would have an efficiency close to 100% with a low cost of maintenance and per KWh. Its fuel should be as widespread as possible to meet this cost low.
The M machine will be able to move easily as a generator. It should facilitate the development of power plant as soon as possible. Without this, most of the world's population will live in poverty while increasing its population growth. The birth rate is higher in countries with low HDI as shown in the graph below.
The M machine has to be mobile. Small unit of energy will be provided to spread electricity for every one even in very remote areas. This is to prevent urban migration increasing the slum population of crowded cities. A power of 1 to 10 MW must be installed anywhere in a few days, to provide energy at a reduced cost.
Urbanization is often viewed as a negative trend, but it is perceived as a natural occurrence simply from individual and corporate efforts to reduce expense in transportation and commuting while improving opportunities for jobs, education, housing, and transportation. It is the unique opportunity to improve the population HDI. Living in cities permits individuals and families to take advantage of the proximity of opportunities, diversity, and marketplace competition.
It is a natural way to reduce transportation costs by increasing the opportunities to find work, means of shelter, and study. This is the opportunity of proximity, of meetings diversity that people search. But it is often the conditions of a slum, overcrowding, poverty, poor hygiene, ... Rural-urban migration must be stopped in developing ideal conditions in order to improve the well-being of local population.
It is a natural way to reduce transportation costs by increasing the opportunities to find work, means of shelter, and study. This is the opportunity of proximity, of meetings diversity that people search. But it is often the conditions of a slum, overcrowding, poverty, poor hygiene, ... Rural-urban migration must be stopped in developing ideal conditions in order to improve the well-being of local population.
What are the solutions to achieve this M machine?
All energy solutions based on a finite fuel like oil, gas, uranium, can never validate the specifications of the M machine. These fuels will eventually become scarce and expensive. The solutions are limited to a small number of country. They will not allow a sufficient increase in the HDI of humanity.
The solar energy solutions are a first solution. Solar sanitary, heating water to the bathroom and the kitchen is a backup option in the hot country. This is a limited solution but it is power realised locally, it does not need to be moved from one point to another. The solution is the photovoltaic power. For the individual, it must be abandoned because energy efficiency is very weak and can not be improved without a significant increase in cost. At contrary, the solution of solar power plants has a great future ahead of it. Thanks to solar concentrator dishes, semiconductors optimized for small size and high performance can be used. These yields currently above 40% efficiency which are expected to improve more. In addition, the small size of these components allows them to be replaced at each new version, which is not the case for panels on the roofs scheduled during 20 years. All these technologies are interesting but are dependent on the weather. Without sun, and wind, we no longer have democratic power. There is the solution of batteries or any other storage, but it's hard to look longer than 2-3 days. In fact, 2 to 3 months should be considered under certain latitudes without a favorable weather condition.
We saw that electricity is a democratic vector to improve the energy consumption both for industry, housing, and mobility. To be economic, it should be a source of energy which can be transformed directly into electricity without loss of performance.
Does the company Focus Fusion work to implement the M machine?
I will describe in my next blog the Focus Fusion device proposed by Eric Lerner .
